⚽️ Amazon Considering Expanding Its EPL Streaming Position

Good morning. Watch as much Premier League action as you can this weekend, because we’re looking at another two-week international break starting Monday. The silver lining? There isn’t another international break scheduled until March 18-26, 2024.

The Schedule:

• Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, 7:30 a.m., USA Network): Spurs limped out of Monday’s loss to Chelsea with numerous injured players, which explains why they are plus-odds on the money line (ahem) as of this writing.

• Arsenal (H) vs. Burnley (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., USA Network): The Gunners have dropped all the way to fourth in the table after being at or near the top for most of the beginning of the season.

• Crystal Palace (H) vs. Everton (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): The Toffees will look to continue their run of results just good enough to keep them out of the relegation battle.

• Manchester United (H) vs. Luton Town (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): United’s season continues to lurch toward both flaming out of this year’s Champions League tournament and missing out on European soccer next season. Which may be just as well.

• Bournemouth (H) vs. Newcastle United (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., NBC): Speaking of clubs with falling fortunes, the Magpies have dropped to sixth in the table despite having the league’s second-best goal difference.

• Aston Villa (H) vs. Fulham (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): Villa joins Manchester City and Liverpool as the only unbeaten and untied teams at home so far this season, while Fulham is 14th in road form.

• Brighton & Hove Albion (H) vs. Sheffield United (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): If the Seagulls are going to get back into the discussion for the European places, they have to have matches like this one.

• Liverpool (H) vs. Brentford (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): Arsenal are probably going to hammer Burnley, so Liverpool needs a win and quite possibly a big win to remain third in the table.

• West Ham (H) vs. Nottingham Forest (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., USA Network): Honestly, we have no idea why this match is on USA Network as opposed to the Liverpool match, either.

• Chelsea (H) vs. Manchester City (Sunday, 11:30 a.m., USA Network): the league saved the best for last this weekend. If Chelsea gets to play 11 vs. 9 like they did against Spurs, you have to like their chances. Otherwise, you really can’t.

In the email today:

Live sports continues to be the one broadcast product that not only retains value year on year, but brings higher and higher returns. You can’t binge watch an EPL season, and no matter what the tin foil hat crowd tells you, it’s not scripted, either. Jeff Bezos knows this. 

• Amazon Prime, currently paying £90 million for 60 live matches over three seasons, is considering bidding in the latest auction for live rights to Premier League matches.

• Amazon benefited after the Premier League's prior domestic TV deal was extended by three years on the same terms due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

• Industry insiders suggest that Amazon received a discount on their first set of live rights six years ago to draw them into the market.

• Doubts had been raised about Amazon bidding in the last auction, with the cheapest package expected to go for around £300 million per year.

• The Premier League is seeking a significant increase from the current £5 billion three-year domestic deal in the upcoming rights auction, with the number of matches increasing from 200 to around 270.

Our take: Whether it’s Amazon (which it may well be) or another streaming service that pays these broadcast rights, the price is going to be significant. Your subscription fees are going to rise, and the dawn of pay-per-view (think, say, $2.99 for this weekend’s Chelsea/City match) cannot be far away.

2) 🏥 Arsenal’s Injury Woes Have Gunners Peering Ahead at January Transfer Market

The primary element that separates the teams at the top of the Premier League table from everyone else isn’t usually the quality of the starting eleven. It’s players 12 through 25, who have to be able to cover for injuries, illness, and schedule congestion. Arsenal’s squad has been top-heavy for awhile, and recent injuries have the Gunners scrambling for reinforcements.

• Arsenal's original plan for the January transfer window was to sign a new forward, but Thomas Partey's recent injury setback has prompted the club to reconsider and focus on signing a midfielder instead.

• Partey has undergone a minor treatment procedure for a thigh injury and is expected to miss a significant portion of the season, with uncertainty about his return date.

• Arsenal, operating on a tight budget after their previous spending spree this past summer, will prioritize a midfielder to ease the workload on players like Declan Rice and Jorginho in Partey's absence.

• The Gunners may need to sell players to supplement their limited budget in January. Some of that budget is earmarked for David Raya, currently on loan from Brentford, who is expected to join Arsenal permanently for £30 million next summer.

• Partey's potential involvement in the AFCON tournament further complicates the midfield situation for Arsenal.

Our take: Partey, Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka have all missed time for Arsenal this season. That’s a lot of quality on the sidelines, and it won’t be easy to make up for their absences in what is usually a fairly dismal winter transfer window full of other teams’ disappointments and malcontents.

3) ❌ of the Day: Could Luton Town Shake Up the Theater of Dreams?

As an aside, you know it’s bad when the likes of Tom Cleverley is taking shots.

4) 🗳️ Which Is Your EPL Match of the Weekend?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🚑️ Injuries of Note

All percentage likelihoods of playing taken from Fantasy Premier League site.

• Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool: Illness, 75% chance of playing

• John Stones, Manchester City: Muscle injury, 25% of playing

• Bukayo Saka, Arsenal: Undisclosed injury, 75% chance of playing

• Martin Odegaard, Arsenal: Hip injury, 75% chance of playing

• Callum Wilson, Newcastle United: Hamstring injury, 75% chance of playing

• Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal: Hamstring injury, out until December 2

6) 🎰 Betting Lines and Picks

• Tottenham Hotspur (+115) over Wolverhampton Wanderers: Spurs are dinged up, but after the Chelsea fiasco the players who are healthy are going to be motivated.

• Arsenal over Burnley AND under 3.5 total goals (+110): If Arsenal was healthier, over 3.5 goals would have been the play. As it stands, 3-0 Arsenal (or even 2-1 Arsenal) appears more likely.

• Both Teams to Score in Manchester United/Luton Town (-115): United have a negative goal difference (-4, specifically) in the league for a reason.

• Liverpool over Brentford AND Mohamed Salah to score (+110): Liverpool are -245 to win this match; this is the way to flip to plus odds.

• Manchester City over Chelsea AND over 1.5 total goals (+100): Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. This bet goes to +150 with over 2.5 goals…just saying. We’re taking the conservative approach.

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow Phil @philkeidel on X.

Thanks for reading!