⚽️ EPL to NFL: Bring It On

Good morning. In America, the professional sports leagues rank like this: 1. NFL. T2. Everything else. Apparently, the Premier League didn’t get that memo, because the league is considering Sunday night matches (6:30 UK time) that will go head-to-head with the early NFL television window. Is the Prem punching over its weight? Probably. For now, at least.

📺️ The Schedule:

• Crystal Palace (H) v. Fulham (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Tenth in the table away to ninth in the table. Two nondescript sides. This could be an all-time classic or a rock fight.

• Luton Town (H) v. Wolverhampton Wanderers (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Luton is the last remaining team without a point in the table. The Hatters’ chances of staying up are already terrible. To stay up, they’ll have to win matches like this, home to 16th place Wolves.

• Manchester City (H) v. Nottingham Forest (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., USA Network): Forest are the surprise of the early season, in eighth place in the table. City’s last home loss in the Prem came to Brentford on November 12, 2022.

• Brentford (H) v. Everton (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., Peacock): We have documented Everton’s woes at length lately. Brentford still misses Ivan Toney bad, but they’re still a lot better than the Toffees.

• Burnley (H) v. Manchester United (Saturday, 3:00 p.m., Peacock): The resistible force versus the movable object. Burnley has one point(!) in four matches, and United is a mere -130 favorite to win.

• Arsenal (H) v. Tottenham Hotspur (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): Hook it into our veins! North London Derby! Tied second on points in the table! So it’ll probably be a 0-0 draw.

• Brighton & Hove Albion (H) v. Bournemouth (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., USA Network): Any Premier League fan who chooses to watch this match over Gunners/Spurs almost certainly bet too much money on it.

• Chelsea (H) v. Aston Villa (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): You could be forgiven for keeping one eye on Chelsea during the Arsenal/Tottenham match, the same way you keep an eye on a car wreck as you pass it.

• Liverpool (H) v. West Ham United (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., Peacock): A compelling argument for the Prem spreading matches out over more match days and television windows. Third versus sixth in the table, and only the YNWA hardos are going to pick this one in this window.

• Sheffield United (H) v. Newcastle United (Sunday, 11:30 a.m., USA Network): Here’s where we find out whether Newcastle’s squad is deep enough to bounce back on the road again after a grueling, defensive Champions League grind out on Tuesday in Italy.

In the email today:

The NFL is king as far as televised sports in the US on Sunday goes. Sure, MLB still plays and televises games, but when is the last time you watched a baseball game on TV on a Sunday afternoon in September? Well, the Premier League took a look at that dynamic, thought about it, and said “whatever, we’re not afraid.”

• Premier League media rights deals in the UK are set to expire in 2024-25, while in the US, NBC holds the rights through 2027-28.

• The Premier League is considering selling an additional 50 matches to broadcasters, potentially increasing the total to around 250 matches.

• These extra matches may lead to new time slots, including Sunday evening kickoffs, some starting after 6 p.m. in the UK — in the 1 p.m. hour in the US. This change could result in scheduling conflicts with the NFL.

• The Premier League's decision regarding start times is primarily based on UK considerations and (for now) is not deemed to be influenced by American markets.

• However, later Sunday kickoffs may cause logistical challenges and inconvenience for American fans who follow the Premier League.

Our take: Crossing the Pond HQ thinks this issue is far more nuanced than is widely believed. American population demographics continue to shift precipitously. Audiences are splintering all over the place as it is. Or, think of it this way: Given the choice between Man City/Liverpool or Carolina Panthers/Washington Commanders, what would you watch?

2) 🔴 You May Not Believe This, But Erik ten Hag’s Job Might Be in Jeopardy

We imagine that it’s a lot of fun managing a club like Manchester United when things are going well. Like most soaring highs, though, the descent is always a bitch. Even if you know you’re probably going to lose the gig, reading about it can’t be any fun at all.

• United has suffered three losses in the early Premier League season, including a significant defeat at Old Trafford to Brighton & Hove Albion.

• Ten Hag has admitted feeling "under pressure" amid these struggles.

• Arne Slot, the manager of Feyenoord, is rumored to be the leading candidate to replace Ten Hag.

• Slot is highly regarded in European football and notably turned down an offer from Tottenham Hotspur to stay at Feyenoord.

• However, the situation could be complicated as Slot is committed to Feyenoord, and it may require significant efforts to tempt him away from his current role.

Our take: Don’t be coy with us, Arne. Feyenoord is a fine club in a perfectly decent league. But as Jack Horner might have put it, “come on…this is Manchester United!”

3) ❌ Tweet of the Day: Disrespectful

4) 🗳️ Poll: Which Match Is #1 in the Queue for You This Weekend?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🔗 Links Roundup:

• 💷 In trickle-down economics news, the Prem is closing in on an agreement to distribute a fraction of its vast riches to lower leagues.

• 🎤 Aaron Ramsdale’s tough week continues as Jamie Carragher says Arsenal will never win the Premier League with Ramsdale.

• 🟨 Early days, but some players are accumulating yellow cards at a clip and risking suspension.

• ⚖️ Aston Villa’s team bus was hit with a gas canister, and four juveniles are headed for the naughty step.

• 🔴 That Liverpool Europa League match in the tweet above? They won.

• ⬇️ Conversely, Brighton & Hove Albion’s Europa League debut ended in tears.

6) 🚑 Injuries of Note

All percentages on likelihood of playing from the EPL’s fantasy site.

• Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool: Hamstring, 50% chance to play

• Reece James, Chelsea: Hamstring, out until at least October 7

• John Stones, Manchester City: Muscle injury, 50% chance to play

• Gabriel Martinelli, Arsenal: Muscle injury, 50% chance to play

• Jack Grealish, Manchester City: Thigh, out until at least September 30

• Mason Mount, Manchester United: Undisclosed injury, 50% chance to play

7) 🎰 Betting Lines and Picks

• Brentford -125 against Everton: Bet against Everton until they won’t let you any more.

• Burnley Double Chance +105 against Manchester United: Erik ten Hag is on the last yard of the plank, and the sharks are hungry.

• Arsenal to win AND over 2.5 goals +110 against Tottenham Hotspur: We actually like Arsenal to win and over 3.5 goals at +225, but pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered.

• Brighton & Hove Albion +145 over Aston Villa: Brighton will be tired from Thursday’s exertions, but not THAT tired.

• Manchester City AND over 2.5 goals AND Erling Haaland to score (-115) against Nottingham Forest: Last season, City to win and Haaland to score was routinely plus money, and bettors cleaned up. Those days are gone.

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow Phil on X @philkeidel.

Thanks for reading!