⚽️ Is Manchester City Really in Trouble in EPL Title Race?

Just eight matches into the Premier League season, Manchester City has gone from six straight wins to two straight losses. In so doing, City has lost both the lead in the table and their perceived invincibility. Is this just a blip in the echocardiogram or a sign that the heart is in real trouble? Either way, it’s the biggest story going in the Greatest League in the World.

In the email today:

Manchester City has two losses in their first eight league matches. Perhaps the biggest issue is that the two losses came consecutively after six straight wins. Had City lost, say, away to West Ham United (currently 7th in the table) three-plus weeks ago but beat Wolverhampton Wanderers instead of the other way around, the alarm bells would be quieter. But that’s not how it happened, and people are starting to wonder why.

• City remains the favorite for the Premier League title, but the odds (between -135 and -140) are shorter than they have been in some time.

• The team lost key midfield players in the summer (Ilkay Gundogan, Riyad Mahrez), and the likes of Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva have not raised their levels sufficiently to mask the departures.

• City's goal-scoring statistics have declined slightly compared to previous seasons, and their expected goals (xG) value per game is also lower.

• Perhaps the most disturbing thing for Pep Guardiola is that City's schedule has been relatively favorable in the early part of the season. City have matches with Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham coming up.

• The absence of key players like Kevin de Bruyne and Jack Grealish affected City's attacking dynamics, while Rodri’s recent suspension left City vulnerable to counter-attacks through the midfield.

• For the first time in a few seasons, City's comparatively thin squad has a lack of natural cover for certain positions, potentially impacting their ability to rotate and rest key players.

Our take: Until the champion is knocked out and the bell rings ending the fight, City remains the hurdle that all the challengers have to leap over. But the 2023/2024 side already looks not as good as its forebears, and hope has to be surging at Arsenal, at Tottenham Hotspur, at Liverpool, and so on.

2) 🌏️ As Wars Rage, EPL Faces Renewed Sportswashing Questions

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no sign of ending. Israeli and Hamas are now at war. Soccer is a dumb and insignificant thing to be thinking about in the grand scheme of things. But the questions surrounding ownership of Premier League clubs by entities shrouded in human rights violations (and worse) are anything but dumb and insignificant.

• There was no moment of solidarity or statement of support for the victims of the recent escalation of violence in Gaza and Israel before Premier League matches over the weekend.

• The Premier League previously had a clear stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict, as instructed by the British government, but it is choosing silence with regard to the current situation in Israel.

• Complex ownership and influence dynamics play a role in this decision, as football has welcomed state-backed actors (most notably at Manchester City and Newcastle United) in recent years for financial gain.

• The Arsenal/Man City match combined these fraught elements: a stadium named The Emirates, a Qatari state television outfit (BeIN Sports) broadcasting the match, and the losing City side being owned by Abu Dhabi.

Our take: It is beyond too late for the Premier League to unring this bell. All the league can do now is try to limit the damage to its reputation. Unfortunately for the league, geopolitical events well out of its control now cast ugly shadows on the propriety and decency of the Premier League. It’s a bad place to be.

3) ❌ Tweet of the Day: No Soup for You!

In a related story, Arsenal is tied with Manchester City for fewest goals allowed (six) through eight games.

4) 🗳️ Poll: Is This the Year Man City Finally Gives the EPL Crown Away?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🔗 Links Roundup:

• 🔵 Chelsea legend Eden Hazard has retired.

• ❓️ Questions around the possible 777 Partners acquisition of Everton aren’t going away.

• 🟨 West Ham United’s Lucas Paqueta is having a really solid season, despite his status as the league’s most penalized player.

• 🎸 Manchester City Superman and Oasis frontman Noel Gallagher has thoughts.

• ⬆️ Tottenham’s James Maddison is the league’s most creative player this season, and it’s not particularly close.

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow Phil on X @philkeidel.

Thanks for reading!