⚽️ Newcastle Are the Early Losers of the EPL Season

Good morning. It was another topsy-turvy weekend in the EPL. We have angles to explore. We have early calls to make. So on with it.

The Scores:

• West Ham 2 (A), Luton Town 1: The Hammers continue to defy preseason expectations, though obviously any date with the Hatters is a potential slump-buster.

• Tottenham Hotspur 5 (A), Burnley 2: Speaking of slump-busters, Spurs got a green light against a newly-relegated team and did not waste the chance.

• Sheffield United (H) 2, Everton 2: Hey look, Everton scored! Twice! Yeah, but it’s still just a point against the entirely toothless Blades.

• Brentford (H) 2, Bournemouth 2: This result helps Bournemouth. Brentford will almost certainly survive relegation this season…Bournemouth, maybe not.

• Nottingham Forest 1 (A), Chelsea 0: Panic stations at Stamford Bridge. Mauricio Pochettino or no, the Blues are a mess.

• Manchester City 5 (H), Fulham 1: The scary part is that City weren’t even playing all that well.

• Brighton & Hove Albion (H) 3, Newcastle 1: These are two teams going in wildly different directions. You can guess the directions from this score.

• Crystal Palace (H) 3, Wolverhampton Wanderers 2: Palace’s manager turned 76 on August 9. Think about the 76-year-old people in your life and ask yourself if they could manage in the EPL.

• Liverpool 3 (H), Aston Villa 0: Jurgen Klopp’s men are not going to go gently into that good night in the EPL title race.

• Arsenal 3 (H), Manchester United 1: For that matter, Mikel Arteta’s Gunners are very much not afraid.

Top of the Table:

In the email today:

1) ⬇️ Newcastle United Are an Expensive Failure

Newcastle United clawed their way to the fourth position in the 2022-2023 EPL table to claim the last place in the Champions League draw. After four EPL matches, this looks very much like a case of “be careful what you wish for.”

• Newcastle United, under Eddie Howe's management, suffered their third consecutive defeat, with the latest loss against Brighton & Hove Albion.

• This three-game losing streak is the first time it has happened since spring 2022.

• Separately, last season it took until March for Newcastle to lose this many games in the top flight for the entire EPL season.

• Howe said that the first goal is crucial in any match and that giving it up dented the team's confidence, especially after their previous week's performance.

• He acknowledged the pressure on him and his players given their poor start to the season, especially considering the tough upcoming schedule which includes Champions League clashes against AC Milan and PSG.

Our take: Eddie Howe is going to have a longer leash than many Premier League managers given his success last season and the investment in the club by the ownership group. But today, as you read this? Howe is a drowning man clutching at a razor blade who can't see the shore line.

2) 📈 Buy or Sell?

Letting you behind the curtain: This is our favorite section every week.

• 🟢 Erling Haaland, Manchester City: Buy. Your Viking overlord had two quiet games, then slapped three by Fulham.

• 🟢 Son Heung-Min, Tottenham Hotspur: Buy. It took a minute, but Son is clearly now the focal point of Spurs’ offense in Kane’s absence. This is not just a green light, it’s a GREEN LIGHT.

• 🟢 Liverpool Football Club: Buy. Jurgen Klopp appears to have set his phasers on “This is the Last Dance Boys, Spill Your Buckets.”

• 🔴 Newcastle United Football Club: Sell. See above.

• 🔴 Chelsea Football Club: Sell. Losing to Nottingham at home is a “Bridge” too far. (See what we did there?)

• 🟢 Julian Alvarez, Manchester City: Buy. We didn’t see this coming. Alvarez is playing as a second striker with Haaland now. He’ll get tap-ins, he’ll get assists, sometimes he’ll just score on his own. Frightening.

Our take: Come at us if you have to, but the primary lesson of the first four weeks of the EPL season is that there is City, Arsenal and Liverpool (in that order) and then there are all of the other clubs.

3) ❌ of the Day: Not Great, Bob!

Rennie often overstates reality but here he is absolutely right.

4) 📊 Poll: Who Should Worry The Most?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🔗 Links

• Oh, did’um’s want a woobie or a cookie? Barcelona is crying about Manchester City’s transfer policy. 😢 

• More tears: Jadon Sancho wants more playing time at Manchester United. 😢 

• Is £2.36bn at lot? Because that’s what EPL teams spent in the most recent transfer window. 💷 

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow @philkeidel on X.

Thanks for reading!