⚽️ Premier League Close to £900M Revenue Distribution to Lower Leagues

Good morning. Midweek Carabao Cup matches are well and good. They’re better than no soccer at all. But make no mistake, we’re delighted to have another full slate of Premier League matches to look forward to this weekend.

The Schedule:

• Aston Villa (H) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, 7:30 a.m., USA Network): Villa will still be seething from losing their Carabao Cup match with Everton on Wednesday. Brighton is hardly a team you get healthy against.

• Everton (H) vs. Luton Town (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Fifteenth in the standings hosts eighteenth. It’s a little soon to call this a relegation six-pointer, but only a little.

• AFC Bournemouth (H) vs. Arsenal (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Arsenal’s draw with Tottenham Hotspur last week left the Gunners four points back of Manchester City. They can ill afford a slip up against Bournemouth.

• Newcastle United (H) vs. Burnley (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): The Magpies started the season very slowly but their recent form is terrific. A home date with 19th place Burnley sets up nicely for Eddie Howe’s men.

• West Ham United (H) vs. Sheffield United (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Sheffield remains pinned to the bottom of the league standings. Traveling to London to take on the Hammers is not really what the Blades need right now.

• Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) vs. Manchester City (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): City figure to be on a mission after bombing out of the Carabao Cup at Newcastle in the midweek.

• Manchester United (H) vs. Crystal Palace (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., USA Network): The recent buzz surrounding the possibility that Erik ten Hag might lose the United job has quieted recently. Amazing what a couple of wins will do.

• Tottenham Hotspur (H) vs. Liverpool (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., USA Network): And here’s your runaway match of the weekend, with fourth place Spurs welcoming second place Liverpool. There should be goals in this one.

• Nottingham Forest (H) vs. Brentford (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., USA Network): If we didn’t know any better, we might think the Prem front-loaded the weekend’s matches to avoid competing with the Ryder Cup.

• Fulham (H) vs. Chelsea (Monday, 3:00 p.m., USA Network): You would never have thought that Chelsea would have to win this match to draw level on points with Fulham, but that’s exactly what they need to do.

In the email today:

There has always been an uneasy relationship between the moneyed Premier League clubs and the teams in the Championship, to say nothing of the teams in League One and League Two. The smaller clubs in the lower leagues are the lifeblood of the sport in England, but they don’t generate enough revenue on their own to operate effectively. Premier League teams regularly let some of their money trickle down. Negotiations for another such payout are underway.

• English Football League (EFL) clubs are nearing a £900 million deal with the Premier League.

• The Premier League has presented a draft six-year proposal to the 72 EFL clubs, subject to finalizing finer details and cost controls.

• Pressure has mounted on the Premier League to reach an agreement with the EFL before the government's Independent Football Regulator is established.

• Talks between the EFL and the Premier League have intensified in an effort to reach a compromise rather than face imposition by the new regulator.

• EFL chairman Rick Parry initially sought a 25% share of the Premier League's broadcast revenue, but the new proposal represents approximately 21%, a significant increase from the current solidarity package.

• The three newly-promoted clubs (Sheffield United, Burnley, and Luton) performing poorly in the Premier League has further highlighted the financial gap between the top flight and the EFL.

Our take: That last point is salient. Sheffield, Burnley and Luton are not just off to slow starts. Those teams are undermanned and outgunned. And the only thing that ever fixes thin squads like those are infusions of cash.

2) 🇸🇦 Mark Clattenburg Tells EPL Officials That Leaving for the Saudi Pro League Might Have Serious Consequences

Prestige or money? That’s the question Premier League officials are going to be asking themselves when they see the offers coming in from the Saudi Pro League. Mark Clattenburg, one of the preeminent Prem referees in his day, has some thoughts, and a warning.

• Clattenburg has warned that officials could miss out on major tournaments if they choose to work for the Saudi Pro League.

• Referees from the Premier League and Europe are reportedly being approached for potential roles in the Saudi Pro League.

• International referees from countries like New Zealand, Paraguay, and Argentina have been brought in to officiate certain matches in the Saudi Pro League.

• Clattenburg, who served as Saudi Arabia's director of refereeing, cautioned that referees would need to consider the possibility of missing out on refereeing opportunities in major tournaments like the Champions League, Euros, or World Cup if they accept lucrative offers from Saudi Arabia.

• While Premier League referees can earn between £120,000 and £300,000, the Saudi league is believed to offer substantially higher wages, making it an attractive option for officials.

Our take: We don’t love the fact that the Saudi Pro League is willing to overpay officials to work their games. We’re also not the biggest LIV Golf fans, either. But there is no disputing that this is the way of the future. There’s just too much money to be made.

3) ❌ of the Day: Anybody Hungry?

4) 🗳️ Poll: Who Wins the Weekend’s Big Match?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response at a later date.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 📺️ The 3:00 p.m. television blackout in the UK will most likely survive, but all of the other matches are set to be broadcast.

• 🔴 On Saturday, Ange Postecoglu will look to take down the club he loved as a young man.

• 💷 Speaking of Liverpool, they sold a minority stake in the club to Dynasty Equity.

6) 🚑 Injuries of Note

All percentages on likelihood of playing from the EPL’s fantasy site.

• Ben Chilwell, Chelsea: Hamstring injury, 50% chance to play.

• Bukayo Saka, Arsenal: Undisclosed injury, 75% chance to play.

• James Maddison, Tottenham Hotspur: Knee injury, 75% chance to play.

• Gabriel Martinelli, Arsenal: Muscle injury, 50% chance to play.

• Bernardo Silva, Manchester City: Undisclosed injury, may return October 8.

• Alexander Isak, Newcastle United: Calf injury, 75% chance to play.

7) 🎰 Betting Lines and Picks

• Manchester City and Newcastle Both to Win (-137): Neither Wolves nor Burnley is equipped to deal with these power teams.

• Liverpool (+120) over Tottenham Hotspur: Yeah, the Reds are on the road, but any time you can get the better team at plus odds, you have to take it.

• Everton/Luton Town Draw (+300): Two very low-scoring teams. Feels like 0-0 or 1-1 to us.

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow Phil on X @philkeidel.

Thanks for reading!