⚽️ Premier League Soccer is BACK!

Good morning! Exclamation point because it’s just one more night of sleep before the Premier League is back in our lives. We were patient and now we will be rewarded with a fine slate of matches as the Greatest League in the World turns the bright lights on again.

The Schedule:

• Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) v. Liverpool (Saturday, 7:30 a.m., USA Network): The Reds will likely need to win to stay within touching distance of City, based on City’s history against West Ham (below).

• West Ham United (H) v. Manchester City (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., USA Network): City have not lost to the Hammers in the Premier League since September 2015.

• Manchester United (H) v. Brighton & Hove Albion (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): United was a disjointed mess before they took two weeks off. Heaven only knows what they’ll look like tomorrow.

• Tottenham Hotspur (H) v. Sheffield United (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Son Heung-Min went scoreless in three matches before posting a hat trick against Burnley before the International break. The Blades aren’t much more efficient defensively than Burnley is.

• Fulham (H) v. Luton Town (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): This is not a relegation three-pointer at this stage of the season, but when we look at the table in April the result here might be telling.

• Aston Villa (H) v. Crystal Palace (Saturday, 10:00 a.m., Peacock): Call this a “we’re serious about a Europa League place” showdown. The primary way to launch into the upper reaches of the table is to win matches like this against an evenly matched side.

• Newcastle United (H) v. Brentford (Saturday, 12:30 p.m., Peacock): Is this a “win or leave town” match for Eddie Howe? The only way we won’t find out is if the Magpies get a result.

• AFC Bournemouth (H) v. Chelsea (Sunday, 9:00 a.m., USA Network): If Chelsea is going to pull themselves out of the bottom half of the standings, they’ll have to do it with wins against teams like Bournemouth who the Blues have an enormous talent advantage against.

• Everton (H) v. Arsenal (Sunday, 11:30 a.m., USA Network): One of the matches that saved Everton from relegation last season was their February win against the Gunners at Goodison Park.

• Nottingham Forest (H) v. Burnley (Monday, 2:45 p.m., USA Network): By their standards, Forest are off on a tear with two wins from four matches. Burnley has the worst record and worst goal difference in the league. Forest is advised to pick up another three points here.

In the email today:

Just a glance at that image above tells you where the good business was and where the money was wasted. Still, this 11 deserves a closer look.

• The bargain of the bunch has to be Alisson in goal, on £150,000 per week. Andre Onana is making £120,000 per week at United, and he’s…not good.

• Manchester City are carrying four of the 11. Only Erling Haaland (£375,000 per week) is worth every penny as his colleagues Kevin de Bruyne (£400,000 per week), Bernardo Silva (£300,000 per week) and John Stones (£250,000 per week) are not really featuring at City right now.

• Defenders Raphael Varane (£340,000 per week for United) and Reece James (£250,000 per week for Chelsea) are also wildly overpaid compared to the value they are bringing to their clubs.

• While £350,000 per week seems like a lot to pay for Mohamed Salah, if anything, Liverpool might be getting a bargain for the face of the club.

• The jury is still out on Chelsea defender Ben Chilwell (£200,000 per week), who only just got to Stamford Bridge.

Our take: With lists like this, sunlight is disinfectant. Often we don’t bother to look up what any of these guys are actually pulling down. Haaland, like LeBron James and Patrick Mahomes, is probably worth three times what he’s actually making. Conversely, a few of these guys are definitely stealing money.

2) Erik ten Hag Gets the Dreaded “Vote of Confidence” from Former United Star Rio Ferdinand

Put in this way: No one has to say nice things about the job Pep Guardiola is doing. Anyone who suggests Guardiola needs to hear that he’s actually doing a pretty good job is gaslighting you. Meanwhile, United skipper Erik ten Hag probably needs a hug, which he got from Rio Ferdinand:

• Rio Ferdinand, former United defender and pundit, believes that manager Erik ten Hag has earned patience and trust based on his previous season's performance.

• Ferdinand thinks it's too early to pressure Ten Hag to turn the season around.

• He acknowledges that United's start to this season resembles their previous one under Ten Hag, with slow starts and poor results.

• There has been controversy, including leaving out Jadon Sancho from the squad, contributing to a complicated start to the season.

• Ferdinand attributes some of United's struggles to injuries, pointing out that most teams would face similar challenges if they lost key players.

• United's next matches include facing Brighton in the Premier League and Bayern Munich in the Champions League.

Our take: That sound you hear is ten Hag whistling past the graveyard. United are narrow favorites (+120) against Brighton tomorrow and heavy underdogs (+425 to win, +360 to draw) away to Bayern Munich in their Champions League group stage opener on Wednesday. Two losses, and all this ten Hag happy talk will definitely go away.

3) ❌ Tweet of the Day: Kyle Walker’s Jordan Belfort Moment

“I’m not leaving,” said Walker in full “Wolf of Wall Street” garb announcing his contract extension. When this deal ends in 2026, City will probably want to indict Walker for financial crimes.

4) 🗳️ If It All Came Down to One Bet This Weekend, Where Would You Put Your Money?

Keep reading for our picks at the end of this newsletter.

5) 🏥 Injuries of Note

It never fails. Players leave for international duty and some of them come back with nagging injuries or have to sit out for things they did before the break. Here are a few of the key players who might/will be out of action this weekend. All percentages on likelihood of playing from the EPL’s fantasy site.

• Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool: Hamstring, 75% chance to play.

• Virgil van Dijk, Liverpool: Red card suspension until September 24.

• Reece James, Chelsea: Hamstring, 50% chance to play.

• John Stones, Manchester City: The dreaded “Muscle Injury,” 75% chance to play.

• Jack Grealish, Manchester City: Thigh, 75% chance to play.

• Mason Mount, Manchester United: Out tomorrow, may return September 23.

• Evan Ferguson, Brighton: Knee, 75% chance to play.

6) 🎰 Betting Lines and Picks

• Manchester City -210 against West Ham: City owns the Hammers, and with Pep Guardiola back in charge, the Citizens are apt to hang a number in London.

• AFC Bournemouth Double Chance (even) against Chelsea: The Blues are firmly in “show me” territory here at Crossing the Pond HQ.

• Arsenal to win AND over 1.5 goals (-150) against Everton: The Gunners are catching Everton at just the right time.

• Crystal Palace Double Chance (-110) against Aston Villa: Until Villa gets out of second gear, they’re not worthy of your hard-earned wager.

• Brighton and Hove Albion (+195) against Manchester United: The Red Devils will probably looking ahead to the midweek trip to Germany. The Seagulls are the LAST team you want to look past.

The newsletter today was written by Phil Keidel. Follow Phil on X @philkeidel.

Thanks for reading!